"tranquilo" v. "falsa paz"

Emotions ran the gamut among my Nicaraguan friends today as the reality of the Ortega victory set in. By far the dominant sentiment I heard was:

“Tranquilo [No worries]. We will respect the Sandinista victory. We will give Ortega a second chance.”

This is a man whose name invokes the full pendulum of nationalist feelings—either of pride or disgust, pain or elation. While he was responsible for leading Nicaragua in a time when brothers fought against brothers, food was rationed, and the economy crumbled, he continues to be a populist figure, a symbol of victory over a corrupt dictatorship, a source of hope for the poor campesinos who were ignored until the Sandinistas took power, and the reason that many people in rural Nicaragua can read today (thanks to the national literacy campaign they instituted, by far their greatest achievement).

But, not everyone is “tranquilo”. On the microbus to work today, I sat next to a man who was reading the newspaper headlines about Ortega’s victory and shaking his head in disbelief. “I take it you don’t like the news,” I commented. “No,” he replied sharply. “Ortega is going to ruin everything. No one is going to want to invest in Nicaragua if he is president. We’re going back to the 80s all over again.”

Last night two Nica friends visiting our house shared with us is that their biggest fear is what the United States response to this election will be. And then this morning, my dear friend Hultner asked me,

“How is Ortega going to maintain good relations with the US when he owes Chavez so many favors already? And the [US] Democrats’ victory is only going to encourage Ortega to move further to the left.” He commented later, “Hay una falsa paz…a peace that is so fragile that it could break at any moment.”

While it has been peaceful here, there is indeed a heavy sense of uncertainty-a subdued atmosphere-a muted sense of color (other than the bright pink Sandinista hats around town). In some ways, the uncertainty has less to do with Ortega himself (who has made a lot of conciliatory gestures toward business leaders here and toned down his rhetoric considerably) and more to do with people’s fears about whether or not the country is going to be caught up in another tug-of-war between the United States and Venezuela. No one really knows what will happen. But painting the picture with polarizing, fear inducing headlines like this certainly doesn't help matters.